What is the current probability for "Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 11¢ (11% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1339.2% and 16.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will XRP reach $3.80 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The 9¢ price implies XRP needs a 1,447% rally to $3.80 within 259 days, yet the market is pricing this at just 9% probability despite XRP's extreme realized volatility of 1,772% and a vol ratio of 4.53 suggesting significant tail-risk optionality.

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11¢

Bid/Ask 6/15¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $3.18·OI $1,611.137·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining

0x4b92585338d166b1cfb91b5c3d0e7c2c2b85ce351932eab3fb95c295b361f0d1

7-day price647 snapshots · 6 regime

51¢11¢ current

Apr 106¢Apr 30

Analysis

13d ago

The 9¢ price implies XRP needs a 1,447% rally to $3.80 within 259 days, yet the market is pricing this at just 9% probability despite XRP's extreme realized volatility of 1,772% and a vol ratio of 4.53 suggesting significant tail-risk optionality. The asymmetric 1,425% implied yield on "Yes" versus 13.9% on "No" reflects deep skepticism, though the 5¢ spread and modest $296k daily volume indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings if conviction shifts. The high cliff risk index of 10 and recent 31% price decline over seven days suggest this is a speculative long-shot bet that's currently underweighting XRP's historical volatility patterns.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for XRP (XRP/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance XRP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1339.2%

IY (No) 16.5%

Adj IY 1339%

CRI 9

RV 1126%

VR 3.50

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1339.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	16.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1339%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1126%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.50	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 5:01:45 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 4:53:09 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x4b92585338d166b1cfb91b5c3d0e7c2c2b85ce351932eab3fb95c295b361f0d1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →