Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Polymarket, closing November 12, 2026. The market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1629% and a vol ratio of 7.54, suggesting highly unstable pricing despite the relatively modest 33¢ level and 210 days to expiration.
Analysis
The market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1629% and a vol ratio of 7.54, suggesting highly unstable pricing despite the relatively modest 33¢ level and 210 days to expiration. The 35¢ spread is notably wide for a binary market, and zero 24-hour volume combined with only $1,460 open interest indicates severe illiquidity, making the 353% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading given execution risk. The sharp 7-day price movement from 14¢ to 32¢ (129% increase) and elevated info arrival rate of 2.7/hour suggest recent news flow around Yamamoto's performance or contract status is driving speculative positioning in a thin market.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x50ec8a76ed2ef0513fd3b38d410e372900416ecc3ddcd8f450047f778a23ea94 yes 100