Brex IPO before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Brex IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 5¢ Polymarket price implies only a 5% probability of a Brex IPO by end-2026, but this significantly undervalues the opportunity relative to Kalshi's 3¢ quote, creating a 2-cent arbitrage gap that suggests either mispricing or venue-specific liquidity differences.
Analysis
The 5¢ Polymarket price implies only a 5% probability of a Brex IPO by end-2026, but this significantly undervalues the opportunity relative to Kalshi's 3¢ quote, creating a 2-cent arbitrage gap that suggests either mispricing or venue-specific liquidity differences. The extreme 2,688% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the long-shot odds, though the modest $231 daily volume and $15.4k open interest indicate thin liquidity that could amplify volatility as the 258-day deadline approaches. The 7-day price movement from 3¢ to 5¢ suggests recent bearish sentiment, and with a Cliff Risk Index of 19, there's meaningful binary risk concentrated near expiration.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
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sf trade 0x62ef6cd583a7301458da4823519fb5b2dc7d236eaa052cccafbec7326a48a02d yes 100