Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?

The market is pricing a 56% probability of Greta Thunberg's arrest by mid-2026, but the extreme implied yields (622% on the No side) and exceptionally high realized volatility of 333% suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. With only $1.67k in 24-hour volume against $23.9k open interest, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating vulnerability to sharp moves if new information arrives—the market is currently experiencing 1.7 news events per hour. The modest 3-cent spread and neutral regime score indicate the market has stabilized after recent price movement (down from 59¢), but the 75-day timeframe and binary nature of arrest events mean tail risk remains substantial.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Regime

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