Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Prediction markets currently give a 54% probability that Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?. This contract trades at 54¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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54¢
Bid/Ask 53/54¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $178.562·OI $23,015.579·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining
0x6eb86679303704bfc4dc014b21914063124bdd26702a77f5bc1d6d1aa6178483
7-day price194 snapshots · 55 regime
67¢54¢ current
Apr 839¢Apr 28

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 126.7%
IY (No) 174.7%
Adj IY 87%
CRI 1
Overround 5.4%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)126.7%
IY (No)174.7%
Adj IY87%
CRI1
Overround5.4%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/29/2026, 4:33:33 PM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 4:23:26 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x6eb86679303704bfc4dc014b21914063124bdd26702a77f5bc1d6d1aa6178483 yes 100

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