Will Sam Raskin win the 2026 Fields Medal?
0x7014fc8058f02a7acc7cb0051a24d75bdbcf08db04392e119ceacf3e791c9e43 · closes Jul 30, 2026 · 106 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 1220.7% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 97.1% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 4 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 2.7% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.32 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1531% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 6.17 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.6/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 832% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
784 indicator snapshots · 5 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x7014fc8058f02a7acc7cb0051a24d75bdbcf08db04392e119ceacf3e791c9e43 yes 100