Will Will Sawin win the 2026 Fields Medal?
0xf7a786e2562ac4087406521ed0b1cea006949ac070e2aa3f5c443a53427a1be7 · closes Jul 30, 2026 · 106 days remaining
Price
Cross-venue · kalshi
Same outcome trades on Who will win the Fields Medal in 2026? · match confidence 0.46 · close-time delta 3711h
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 1686.2% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 70.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 5 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 3.1% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 2188% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 4.11 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 3.0/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 1686% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
357 indicator snapshots · 5 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xf7a786e2562ac4087406521ed0b1cea006949ac070e2aa3f5c443a53427a1be7 yes 100