Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal
Leader sits at 76% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 67%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Hong Wang
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
67¢
Jacob Tsimerman
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
43 days
Venue
Polymarket
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Hong Wang
0xd74fcb…88fe
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Yu Deng
0xce3616…949f
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: John Pardon
0xdef79a…298f
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Jack Thorne
0x31ff41…494e
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Aleksandr Logunov
0xc8fd09…2942
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Alexander Efimov
0x8a8a88…bed3
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Will Sawin
0xf7a786…1be7
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Julian Sahasrabudhe
0xaec72d…254c
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Jacob Tsimerman
0xb7867c…f817
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Sam Raskin
0x7014fc…9e43
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?: Vesselin Dimitrov
0x6e90e6…48a7
Analysis
The 2026 Fields Medal will be awarded in July 2026 to a mathematician under 40 for outstanding mathematical achievement. Hong Wang currently has the highest implied probability at 81%, suggesting strong consensus among traders that he is the frontrunner, though John Pardon (41¢) and Jacob Tsimerman (63¢) represent meaningful alternative outcomes. Prices shift as new mathematical publications emerge, conference presentations occur, and the Fields Medal Committee's evaluation process advances toward the July award ceremony. The resolution date is fixed: the International Congress of Mathematicians in 2026, when the Medal Committee will announce the winners. Until then, prices may adjust based on new research announcements, peer recognition, or changes in how traders weight recent accomplishments against career trajectory.
- ›Hong Wang trades at 82¢ versus John Pardon at 41¢, indicating a significant but not overwhelming market consensus; the largest single-contract volume ($22 in 24h) is on Pardon, suggesting live disagreement
- ›The next Fields Medal announcement is scheduled for July 2026 at the International Congress of Mathematicians; no earlier public decision or preliminary shortlist is expected
- ›Recent high-impact mathematics publications, conference talks, or collaborative breakthroughs could shift prices for any of the top five candidates
- ›Jacob Tsimerman at 63¢ and Yu Deng at 38¢ remain in contention; combined they represent meaningful non-Hong Wang probability
- ›The 10-contract structure means each trader outcome is bound; prices reflect expected probability conditional on that person winning, not joint probabilities across candidates
What moved the line
- Jun 12Yu Deng↑16pp49→65¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16Jacob Tsimerman↓11pp81→70¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 12Jack Thorne↓10pp46→36¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13Jack Thorne↓9pp36→27¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 9Jack Thorne↓8pp59→51¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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