SimpleFunctions

Vesselin Dimitrov in the 2026 Fields Medal

Vesselin Dimitrov is priced at 51¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 14¢ bid, 89¢ ask, 75¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 11 inside Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?.

Price history

51¢ current

+1¢
50¢75¢
May 22, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Outcome

Vesselin Dimitrov

Rank

#5 of 11

Leader

Hong Wang 69¢

Range

8¢-69¢

Family volume

$528K

Identifier

0x6e90e6ef...48a7

May 28, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 5m ago

Implied probability

51¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 5m ago

Bid

14¢

Ask

89¢

Spread

75¢

Reported volume

$0

Family rank

#5 of 11

11 outcomes · Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Closes

Jul 30, 2026

Family volume

$528K

Orderbook snapshot

14 / 89¢

Polymarket
75¢ spread
BidSize
100¢16
14¢30
13¢35
5¢11
4¢110
3¢201
AskSize
89¢30
90¢200
94¢8
95¢27
99¢21

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jul 30, 2026

Identifier

0x6e90e6ef…48a7

SF Signal
SF Index
583.27
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

583.3%

IY (No)

583.3%

Adj IY

583%

CRI

1

RV

1514%

VR

6.29

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

583.3%
583.3%
Adj IY
583%
1
RV
1514%
VR
6.29
IAR
3.2/h
Overround
3.3%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.