Will Pump.fun reach $0.0038 by December 31, 2026?

This illiquid market with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 21¢ spread shows extreme asymmetry, with the "Yes" side offering a 211.4% implied yield versus 94% for "No," suggesting significant underpricing of upside risk given Pump.fun's extraordinary 644% realized volatility. The price has declined 10% over seven days to 40¢, but the 4.37 volatility ratio and 2.3 info arrivals per hour indicate market participants expect material price discovery ahead of the November 2025 monitoring window. With $951k open interest and a cliff risk index of 2, this appears to be a speculative positioning play where the resolution mechanics (requiring just a single 1-minute candle touch) create binary tail risk that the current pricing may not adequately reflect.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Pump.fun (PUMP/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the PUMP/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/PUMP_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance PUMP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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