Will Pump.fun reach $0.0050 by December 31, 2026?

The 20¢ price implies only a 20% probability that Pump.fun reaches $0.0050 by end-2026, yet the Yes position offers an extraordinary 569% risk-adjusted implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the token's 467% realized volatility and the 257-day timeframe. The extremely wide 17¢ spread and anemic $5.88 daily volume indicate severe liquidity constraints that likely explain the yield anomaly, making this market difficult to trade efficiently despite the compelling risk-reward on paper. The 7-day price decline from 22¢ to 20¢ and neutral regime score suggest modest bearish momentum, though the high info arrival rate (0.8/h) indicates active discussion that could quickly shift sentiment.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Pump.fun (PUMP/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the PUMP/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/PUMP_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance PUMP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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Regime

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