Will Disclosure Day get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

The 23¢ Polymarket price significantly undervalues this outcome compared to Kalshi's 39¢ quote, representing a notable 16-point cross-venue arbitrage gap that suggests either mispricing or different trader compositions between platforms. The extreme realized volatility of 8,850% and vol ratio of 28.31 indicate this market has experienced wild swings despite modest 24h volume of just $79.19, raising questions about liquidity depth and the reliability of the current price discovery. With 315 days to expiry and an implied yield of 494% for yes positions, the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty about whether "Disclosure Day" will lead the 99th Academy Awards in nominations, though the low open interest of $1,039.65 suggests limited conviction among traders.

Resolution rules

The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. This market will resolve according to the film which is nominated for the greatest number of Oscars at the 99th Academy Awards, currently expected to take place in March of 2027. A film will be considered to be nominated for an award if it or members of its crew, cast, or production are nominated for an award for work related to that film. In the event of a tie for the greatest number of nominations, this market will resolve in favor of the film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. If for any reason no nominations are announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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