Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Prediction markets currently give a 58% probability that Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?. This contract trades at 58¢ on Polymarket, closing May 7, 2026.

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58¢
Bid/Ask 48/68¢·Spread 20¢·Vol $500.585·OI $1,115.17·Closes May 7, 2026·9d remaining
0x8a988ecfdf56c1dfd588ca7cb47dd65b37c93885c36b49f4c87d1d2efecc251b
7-day price112 snapshots · 2 regime
81¢58¢ current
Apr 2642¢Apr 27

Resolution rules

United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Labour Party wins at least the listed number of council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate will be considered an official candidate of the Labour Party if they are officially nominated by the Labour Party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with the Labour Party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2865.8%
IY (No) 5465.1%
Adj IY 2733%
CRI 1
Overround 2.3%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)2865.8%
IY (No)5465.1%
Adj IY2733%
CRI1
Overround2.3%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
20¢
Computed
4/27/2026, 6:53:41 PM
Indicators computed 4/27/2026, 6:38:53 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x8a988ecfdf56c1dfd588ca7cb47dd65b37c93885c36b49f4c87d1d2efecc251b yes 100

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