Will Oliver Glasner be appointed as manager of Manchester United?

Glasner's odds have surged 225% over seven days (from 8¢ to 26¢), suggesting recent news catalyst, though the 18¢ spread and modest $199 daily volume indicate thin liquidity that may amplify price swings. The extreme 844% realized volatility and 403% implied yield on the Yes side reflect high uncertainty around Manchester United's managerial succession, with the market pricing in substantial binary risk despite 258 days to resolution. The 3.59 vol ratio and neutral regime suggest this is a speculative positioning rather than fundamental repricing, warranting caution on the recent move's sustainability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of Manchester United. If no permanent manager is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Manchester United; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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