Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?

Prediction markets currently give a 73% probability that Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?. This contract trades at 73¢ on Polymarket, closing May 7, 2026.

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73¢
Bid/Ask 71/74¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $1,244.534·OI $15,646.345·Closes May 7, 2026·9d remaining
0x8f2e6ae9c7a37585600abf0423115bc1a2b129d3c08b2ea571a6df04382eee2e
7-day price59 snapshots · 12 regime
80¢73¢ current
Apr 2670¢Apr 27

Resolution rules

United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Green Party wins at least the listed number of council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate will be considered an official candidate of the Green Party if they are officially nominated by the Green Party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with the Green Party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1467.1%
IY (No) 10724.3%
Adj IY 10284%
CRI 3
RV 368%
VR 0.97
▶ Full indicator table (9)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1467.1%
IY (No)10724.3%
Adj IY10284%
CRI3
RV368%
VR0.97
IAR2.4/h
Overround1.4%
LAS0.04

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/27/2026, 7:15:22 PM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/27/2026, 7:08:54 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x8f2e6ae9c7a37585600abf0423115bc1a2b129d3c08b2ea571a6df04382eee2e yes 100

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