Will Rayan Cherki win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Rayan Cherki win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing August 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $565k, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 48¢ spread indicating thin order books on both sides.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $565k, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 48¢ spread indicating thin order books on both sides. The 952% implied yield on the YES side is a red flag typical of low-liquidity long-shot bets, while the realized volatility of 6289% and 7-day price jump from 0¢ to 25¢ suggest the market may have been recently created or experienced a significant information event. With 136 days to expiry and a neutral regime, traders should be cautious of the extreme cliff risk (4/5) and wait for deeper liquidity before taking meaningful positions.
Also on kalshi at 3¢(Δ +10¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2025-26 PFA Players' Player of the Year. If two or more players are announced as winners of the 2026 PFA Players’ Player of the Year award, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no 2025-2026 PFA Players' Player of the Year winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the Professional Footballers’ Association; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x92145f251fefc14c1978350f726284cb00fff012f2ab159027a18c01fc950809 yes 100