Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.49%?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.49%?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Polymarket, closing January 8, 2027. This Mexico inflation band market is pricing in only a 30% probability for the 3.00-3.49% range despite showing extreme realized volatility of 1006% and an unusually high implied yield of 335% on the yes side, suggesting significant mispricing or heavy tail risk hedging.
Analysis
This Mexico inflation band market is pricing in only a 30% probability for the 3.00-3.49% range despite showing extreme realized volatility of 1006% and an unusually high implied yield of 335% on the yes side, suggesting significant mispricing or heavy tail risk hedging. The zero 24-hour volume combined with a wide 28¢ spread and $390k open interest indicates low liquidity that may be constraining price discovery, while the stable 7-day price action (flat at 29¢) contrasts sharply with the volatile regime score, hinting at potential stale pricing ahead of the 267-day resolution window. The 6.05 volatility ratio and 2.0 info arrivals per hour suggest this market is sensitive to incoming Mexican economic data, making the current discount potentially exploitable if inflation expectations stabilize around the target band.
Resolution rules
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
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sf trade 0x039aecea63c2728234a00cbcf27ea0db3247c488b3cc97cf1cd213b2a4735edb yes 100