Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows a notable 7-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap, with Kalshi pricing the YES outcome 14.6% higher at 55¢ versus Polymarket's 48¢, suggesting potential mispricing or liquidity differences between venues.
Analysis
This market shows a notable 7-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap, with Kalshi pricing the YES outcome 14.6% higher at 55¢ versus Polymarket's 48¢, suggesting potential mispricing or liquidity differences between venues. The extremely high realized volatility of 700% and vol ratio of 5.59 indicate substantial price swings despite moderate 24-hour volume of $484, while the 12¢ spread reflects uncertainty around whether SpaceX will achieve 160-179 launches in 2026—a rate requiring roughly 3 launches per week. With 255 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 3.5 events per hour, traders have ample time to reassess as SpaceX's launch cadence becomes clearer, though the neutral regime and balanced implied yields (148.8% vs 137.3%) suggest the market currently lacks strong directional conviction.
Also on kalshi at 43¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
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Trade
sf trade 0x9ca98e91ad1810e7375d0fad4c01dab0ba7001fd9e2391b25569dc0207f508ab yes 100