How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in a 52% probability that SpaceX exceeds 160 launches in 2026, but the extremely high implied yield of 152% on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing relative to historical volatility (218%), particularly given SpaceX's recent execution trajectory and the 260-day timeframe allowing substantial operational data accumulation.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 52% probability that SpaceX exceeds 160 launches in 2026, but the extremely high implied yield of 152% on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing relative to historical volatility (218%), particularly given SpaceX's recent execution trajectory and the 260-day timeframe allowing substantial operational data accumulation. The modest 24-hour volume of $549 and tight $26k open interest indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings, while the recent 3-cent decline from 52¢ to 49¢ over seven days may reflect market skepticism about achieving such an aggressive launch cadence despite SpaceX's demonstrated capability.
Also on polymarket at 46¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
If SpaceX has more than 160 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-160 yes 100