John Rodgers to win Vermont Governor Republican Primary
John Rodgers is priced at 16¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 5¢ bid, 29¢ ask, 24¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner.
Price history
16¢ current
−34¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Vermont, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Vermont Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Outcome
John Rodgers
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Phil Scott 94¢
Range
6¢-94¢
Family volume
$8K
Identifier
0x9d6d218e...e7e2
May 28, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
29¢
Spread
24¢
24h volume
$567
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
Family volume
$8K
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 29¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Vermont, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Vermont Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Vermont Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
Identifier
0x9d6d218e…e7e2
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 16¢, 0¢ versus this page.
Event family
Vermont Governor Republican Primary Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Phil Scott 94¢
Current share
35%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.