Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2,681% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 5¢ price significantly undervalues Miliband's chances despite Labour's current governing position under his leadership. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $32.8M open interest indicates severe liquidity constraints that likely explain the distorted pricing, making this a classic case of illiquid markets failing to reflect fundamental probabilities. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in near-zero probability of a leadership change, which seems inconsistent with standard political risk over an 8+ month window.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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