Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. Andy Burnham's 3¢ price reflects an extremely low probability of becoming PM by end-2026, though the 4618% implied yield on a "Yes" position suggests substantial asymmetric upside if Labour's Greater Manchester mayor unexpectedly ascends to the top job.
Analysis
Andy Burnham's 3¢ price reflects an extremely low probability of becoming PM by end-2026, though the 4618% implied yield on a "Yes" position suggests substantial asymmetric upside if Labour's Greater Manchester mayor unexpectedly ascends to the top job. The $31.7M open interest with minimal 24h volume ($72.54) and a tight 1¢ spread indicates this is a low-liquidity, consensus market where traders view his candidacy as highly unlikely, though the elevated cliff risk index of 32 warrants caution given the binary nature of UK leadership transitions.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade 0x763a7f1e440693b54c56da02d338c2092053567dd865174387d06ee5612fdc9e yes 100