Next UK Prime Minister in 2026
Leader sits at 58% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Andy Burnham
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
No Next PM in 2026
Spread
34pp
contested
24h volume
$11K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?: Angela Rayner
0xe955ed…f8fa
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?: Andy Burnham
0x763a7f…dc9e
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?: Wes Streeting
0x0de4c5…03a1
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?: Ed Miliband
0x9e329c…25da
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?: No Next PM in 2026
0x360229…4d60
Analysis
This 34% probability reflects market expectations that a specific candidate will become the next UK Prime Minister by the end of 2026. The market is pricing in uncertainty around the timing and outcome of potential leadership changes within the governing party or following an election. Major factors pushing the probability upward would include public polling shifts, party dynamics favoring this candidate, or political instability forcing early succession. Downward pressure would come from rising support for alternative candidates or improved standing of the current Prime Minister. The key resolution point will be the next general election, scheduled for January 2025 or whenever Parliament dissolves, which will determine the governing party and available candidates for the top position. Between now and then, internal party contests, scandals, or performance metrics could significantly alter the trajectory of this outcome.
- ›Current candidate polling position relative to other potential successors in their party
- ›Timing of the next general election and whether this candidate's party is projected to govern
- ›Recent shifts in party membership or grassroots support that might influence leadership selection
- ›Public approval ratings and polling for this specific candidate versus alternatives
- ›Historical precedent: how often this candidate has been mentioned in credible media coverage as a potential Prime Minister
What moved the line
- Jun 5Andy Burnham↑6pp54→60¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 1Andy Burnham↑5pp56→61¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4Andy Burnham↓4pp58→54¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3Andy Burnham↓3pp61→58¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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