Will Russell Vought leave the Trump administration before 2027?

The market has experienced significant bearish pressure, declining 35% over seven days from 40¢ to 26¢, suggesting growing confidence in Vought's tenure through 2026. The 33¢ spread combined with zero 24-hour volume indicates extremely thin liquidity despite $613k open interest, creating potential execution challenges for traders. The asymmetric implied yields (402.8% for Yes vs. 49.7% for No) reflect the wide bid-ask gap rather than genuine market conviction, with a neutral regime score suggesting no clear directional momentum despite the recent price drop.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

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Regime

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