Will Tom Homan leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Will Tom Homan leave the Trump administration before 2027?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

██████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
24¢
Bid/Ask 5/43¢·Spread 38¢·Vol $0·OI $402.451·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining
0xaaf71e9c0dd6115c5e981eb0d3c7a9136d3f527402fde1561441fa9e392d1127
7-day price1385 snapshots · 7 regime
51¢24¢ current
Apr 914¢Apr 29

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 471.2%
IY (No) 47.0%
Adj IY 236%
CRI 3
Overround 5.4%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)471.2%
IY (No)47.0%
Adj IY236%
CRI3
Overround5.4%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.477
Spread
38¢
Computed
4/29/2026, 4:33:07 PM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 4:23:26 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xaaf71e9c0dd6115c5e981eb0d3c7a9136d3f527402fde1561441fa9e392d1127 yes 100

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions