Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will Zcash dip to $100 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced significant recent selling pressure, declining 29% over seven days to 32¢, suggesting growing skepticism about Zcash reaching $100 by end-2026 despite the extremely high 300% implied yield on the "Yes" side.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant recent selling pressure, declining 29% over seven days to 32¢, suggesting growing skepticism about Zcash reaching $100 by end-2026 despite the extremely high 300% implied yield on the "Yes" side. The 7¢ spread and modest $216k daily volume indicate relatively thin liquidity for a market with $2.67M open interest, creating potential slippage concerns. The extraordinarily high realized volatility of 636% and Vol Ratio of 4.06 suggest this market is pricing in substantial uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and low cliff risk index (2) indicate no imminent structural concerns with ~259 days to expiration.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Zcash (ZEC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 17:35 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ZEC/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ZEC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xaea52eb0558e3be166d61a297c8680b9d5cdd083df60335474383f38cd48cad5 yes 100