SimpleFunctions

Edmundo González · Venezuela leader end of 2026

Edmundo González is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside Venezuela leader end of 2026?.

Price history

1¢ current

+1¢
0¢5¢
May 6, 2026Jun 2, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

Outcome

Edmundo González

Rank

#4 of 16

Leader

Nicolás Maduro 68¢

Range

0¢-68¢

Family volume

$90.0M

Identifier

0xb122b2a1...4441

Jun 4, 2026, 12:14 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

1¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 4, 2026, 12:14 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$3K

Family rank

#4 of 16

16 outcomes · Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Family volume

$90.0M

Orderbook snapshot

1 / 1¢

Polymarket
0¢ spread
BidSize
100¢4.9K
0¢920K
0¢114K
0¢38K
0¢17K
AskSize
2¢30
2¢670
2¢1.0K
100¢400
100¢222
100¢555
100¢14K
100¢14

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0xb122b2a1…4441

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

Venezuela leader end of 2026.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$90.0M

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Nicolás Maduro 68¢

Current share

1%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Nicolás Maduro

polymarket · 0x67f3f8d0a0ecdfc008c99650284a4674388a8c3029b0eb7ca0abd65dde8d996f

68¢
$1.8M$592

Delcy Rodríguez

polymarket · 0xa01d48a973e40770719dab42faf1aeae5da4376d9eca46e77265c7551d1be0f7

21¢
$1.6M$232

María Corina Machado

polymarket · 0x70187b4770796788b9d1f3fc6652c596870a9a837b96c832441652588f26029d

6¢
$1.2M$6K0.0

Diosdado Cabello Rondón

polymarket · 0xd46931250308613b38c1fdad5cfeaeaae05818bc445668ad4629f12e92aac690

1¢
$1.8M$6K

No Head of State

polymarket · 0xf752269473fe416c87c8da63dd21c74581cbe3f3920cc904b0d59cbdfa173ef7

1¢
$1.2M$5K

Jorge Rodríguez

polymarket · 0xcef0ea92825ef2e046a97ef9b628709d0071614832d3bfc9c6c8dc119a472618

1¢
$1.0M$31

Edmundo González

polymarket · 0xb122b2a17c8dea01d5e8ffe04316bbe011f9bf80c989bb82afde2f39a3fd4441

1¢
$952K$3K

Donald Trump

polymarket · 0x746481a9f7ac20a4959a11ea5d535522040b0dfd7c21b920d5fe134a93c2c26c

1¢
$925K$0

Richard Grenell

polymarket · 0x831493dce463d9adcad78c492f2cbec6ecdac31f4e8c5a894fdac68c130549d4

0¢
$32.2M$1K

Frank Donovan

polymarket · 0x8063a2c9fa21c4a1470b33fee132d6d61fb5b7dcd667dcac3bb82ae15ad70c0d

0¢
$25.4M$2K

Pete Hegseth

polymarket · 0x4197bf7e572f1dd731669d33d05532c6d3b8cba71fb83dc69d789110e39c41b4

0¢
$8.7M$1K

Evan Pettus

polymarket · 0x1dd7704a6d05cca078564bc0bac541261425bc9252acc5634639f5161daf45f9

0¢
$5.3M$1K

Dan Caine

polymarket · 0x1198bf982483cc6f0a3d3de63d7703117ed19c5b5a9474541a2a3b6b0b5e51f3

0¢
$3.7M$1K

Dinorah Figuera

polymarket · 0x86a2f168603fae962d925c91b23fba47c0c7436a240056785de25e998bc30811

0¢
$2.4M$29

Marco Rubio

polymarket · 0x4c04cc7094bf35bd682eb4f0e492836b97392c213087a2b891d0b5d897a81eb2

0¢
$1.1M$721

Vladimir Padrino López

polymarket · 0xbe63107b6f2952cab6bff292332b1574d5f70323a5a830bdc7e6129ab3c3960d

0¢
$685K$762

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

political

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.