Will Nick Kurtz win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Nick Kurtz win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing November 13, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 11¢ spread, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 11¢ spread, making the 7¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 2301.7% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a thin, low-liquidity market where the pricing reflects minimal trading activity rather than genuine probability assessment. With 211 days to expiration and only $1,688.62 in open interest, this contract carries significant execution risk and should be approached cautiously despite the theoretically attractive odds.
Also on kalshi at 12¢(Δ -6¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade 0xb509c405fd1320c8509c45218fb4a8c2579cc255c6130e0bd714ab165cc8fcd4 yes 100