What is the current probability for "Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 74¢ (74% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on July 30, 2026. 96 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 126.5% and 1138.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?. This contract trades at 74¢ on Polymarket, closing July 30, 2026.

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74¢

Bid/Ask 71/77¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $139.95·OI $1,051.895·Closes Jul 30, 2026·96d remaining

0xb7867ccbeebaaa4a51278c4b7bb08c5d7de8e5d4e48f6150f03cc776dce2f817

7-day price784 snapshots · 16 regime

78¢74¢ current

Apr 850¢Apr 24

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 63¢(Δ +11¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.94IY 85.5%Close-time delta 3711h

Resolution rules

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 126.5%

IY (No) 1138.8%

Adj IY 1139%

CRI 3

RV 571%

VR 4.41

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	126.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1138.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1139%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	571%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.41	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 8:34:28 PM

Observability lowEvent type scientific

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 8:23:44 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xb7867ccbeebaaa4a51278c4b7bb08c5d7de8e5d4e48f6150f03cc776dce2f817 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

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