Anduril IPO before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Anduril IPO before 2027?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The market has experienced significant bearish momentum, dropping 50% over seven days from 18¢ to 9¢, suggesting reduced confidence in an Anduril IPO within the 258-day window despite the company's defense tech prominence.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant bearish momentum, dropping 50% over seven days from 18¢ to 9¢, suggesting reduced confidence in an Anduril IPO within the 258-day window despite the company's defense tech prominence. The 1430% implied yield on the Yes side reflects extreme risk compensation for a low-probability event, though thin liquidity ($225 daily volume, $10.6k open interest) and a tight 1¢ spread indicate limited conviction either direction. Cross-venue alignment at 9¢ across Polymarket and Kalshi provides some validation, but the sharp recent decline and high cliff risk (10/10) suggest this may be pricing in extended private fundraising timelines rather than fundamental IPO obstacles.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
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sf trade 0xb7a72d5e5e4ad1dd7664fec7b7c3031a66d149d186e9c5180351780eb1323566 yes 100