Will the Republican Party win the KS-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with Republicans priced at just 13¢ despite KS-03 being a reliably Republican district, generating an implausible 1221% annualized yield on the Yes side. The $0 24-hour volume and $13.6k open interest indicate severe illiquidity, suggesting the low price may reflect minimal trading activity rather than genuine market consensus, while the 2¢ spread and modest 7-day price movement (12¢ to 13¢) provide little additional conviction. With 200 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this appears to be a mispriced opportunity, though the lack of liquidity makes execution risky.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade