Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?

The market is pricing a 56% probability that Kristi Noem exits the Trump administration by end-2026, but the extremely high realized volatility of 244% and elevated info arrival rate of 1.8 events per hour suggest significant uncertainty and active repricing around recent developments. The "No" side offers substantially better risk-adjusted returns (180% vs. 111%), indicating the market may be overweighting near-term departure risks despite the relatively long 258-day timeframe, though the thin 24-hour volume of just $16.41 raises liquidity concerns for position sizing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

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