Will Thomas Tuchel be appointed as manager of Manchester United?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Thomas Tuchel be appointed as manager of Manchester United?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.85M open interest, suggesting the price may not reflect true market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.85M open interest, suggesting the price may not reflect true market consensus. The 5¢ price has collapsed 37.5% over seven days (from 8¢), indicating significant negative sentiment shift toward Tuchel's appointment odds, though the astronomical 2,689% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the micro-price rather than genuine opportunity. With 258 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 19, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an actively traded market, warranting caution on price reliability.
Also on kalshi at 3¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent manager of Manchester United. If no permanent manager is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Manchester United; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xcc5b59e1ab7faafead52dac29db4006aedeaca1f72211db34bd4ac3c979bf55e yes 100