Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?

This market shows extreme volatility (802% realized vol) with a sharp 18-cent price decline over seven days (45¢ to 37¢), yet zero 24-hour volume suggests the move may reflect stale pricing rather than active trading. The 598% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high relative to the 104-day timeframe, indicating either severe mispricing or market skepticism about Yu Deng's candidacy that isn't reflected in the current 37¢ price. With only $2.3M open interest and a 5¢ spread on a binary outcome, liquidity is thin enough that the market may struggle to resolve efficiently, and traders should be cautious about the reliability of this price as a genuine probability estimate.

Resolution rules

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

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