What is the current probability for "Will XRP dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will XRP dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1091.2% and 20.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will XRP dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will XRP dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will XRP dip to $0.20 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $17.5M open interest, suggesting the positions are stale or trapped.

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12¢

Bid/Ask 9/15¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $54.988·OI $5,898.271·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining

0xd1186a4b4416754ddc5f7fb89998fea7a9c484eb9c180971df3b16e76dad7944

7-day price182 snapshots · 4 regime

50¢12¢ current

Apr 810¢Apr 30

Analysis

13d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $17.5M open interest, suggesting the positions are stale or trapped. The 866% implied yield on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high relative to the 22.9% on "No," indicating severe mispricing or that traders view a dip to $0.20 as nearly impossible given XRP's current price levels. The 9¢ bid-ask spread is notably wide for a binary outcome, and with 259 days to expiry, the cliff risk index of 6 suggests meaningful tail risk around the November 2025 observation window start date.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for XRP (XRP/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance XRP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1091.2%

IY (No) 20.3%

Adj IY 1091%

CRI 7

RV 711%

VR 2.24

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1091.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	20.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1091%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	711%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.24	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.364

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 5:01:43 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 4:53:09 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xd1186a4b4416754ddc5f7fb89998fea7a9c484eb9c180971df3b16e76dad7944 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →