Will Jasmeet Bains advance from the CA-22 Primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 52% probability that Will Jasmeet Bains advance from the CA-22 Primary?. This contract trades at 52¢ on Polymarket, closing June 2, 2026. This micro-liquidity market shows extreme yield metrics (1089% implied yield on Yes) driven by minimal open interest of just $113.53 and a wide 23¢ spread, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable for genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This micro-liquidity market shows extreme yield metrics (1089% implied yield on Yes) driven by minimal open interest of just $113.53 and a wide 23¢ spread, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable for genuine probability assessment. With zero 24-hour volume and 46 days to expiration, the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish confidence in the odds, and the extraordinarily high realized volatility (1114%) suggests price discovery is severely compromised. The neutral regime and modest info arrival rate (3.1/h) indicate limited new information flow, so any movement in this illiquid venue should be treated with significant skepticism.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 22nd congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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sf trade 0xde21f299b52e97904d116469a869a1517e9e1f924cd9af7fb0a309cb4f4e1a6b yes 100