John Pardon in the 2026 Fields Medal
John Pardon is priced at 63¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 36¢ bid, 87¢ ask, 51¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 11 inside Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?.
Price history
63¢ current
+26¢Contract brief
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Outcome
John Pardon
Rank
#5 of 11
Leader
Hong Wang 76¢
Range
13¢-76¢
Family volume
$539K
Identifier
0xdef79aab...298f
Jun 17, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
36¢
Ask
87¢
Spread
51¢
24h volume
$33
Family rank
#5 of 11
11 outcomes · Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
Family volume
$539K
Orderbook snapshot
36 / 87¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
Identifier
0xdef79aab…298f
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 56¢, +7¢ versus this page.
Event family
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$539K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Hong Wang 76¢
Current share
16%
Hong Wang
polymarket · 0xd74fcb17049c77b2e4312931de0c8d6c06ca28e23645cfd19772a142a92c88fe
Jacob Tsimerman
polymarket · 0xb7867ccbeebaaa4a51278c4b7bb08c5d7de8e5d4e48f6150f03cc776dce2f817
Yu Deng
polymarket · 0xce361643116d65999278058d79744d37ba0a9ef6c439e095df21716bdd5d949f
Vesselin Dimitrov
polymarket · 0x6e90e6efe2dccfe6a4ddebd2f627cb5820b939ae5aec94906f0500881a0748a7
John Pardon
polymarket · 0xdef79aab7ed2ea2b1cf53f2c20d353380ff1583eb7e4b29109dc7c667f0d298f
Aleksandr Logunov
polymarket · 0xc8fd0988416e7299aaf762cf3c6c7a83e5c0ef4093e927ee48b1a85fe8062942
Jack Thorne
polymarket · 0x31ff4152662e8e50faff8ad80ff5561054753b27a5a4801aa95d3b08ccd2494e
Alexander Efimov
polymarket · 0x8a8a885a2d36304757780431ebf620f4a31ab78a254020cb0f6300f9de81bed3
Julian Sahasrabudhe
polymarket · 0xaec72d4f87e99615a333176329a7f62310eb68e3a32c1b73a882a9110ccd254c
Sam Raskin
polymarket · 0x7014fc8058f02a7acc7cb0051a24d75bdbcf08db04392e119ceacf3e791c9e43
Will Sawin
polymarket · 0xf7a786e2562ac4087406521ed0b1cea006949ac070e2aa3f5c443a53427a1be7
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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