Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will John Pardon win the 2026 Fields Medal?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Polymarket, closing July 30, 2026. John Pardon's 2026 Fields Medal odds are priced at 38¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 573%, suggesting the market views this as a long-shot bet despite Pardon's mathematical prominence.
Analysis
John Pardon's 2026 Fields Medal odds are priced at 38¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 573%, suggesting the market views this as a long-shot bet despite Pardon's mathematical prominence. The 13¢ spread and modest $31.52 daily volume indicate thin liquidity for a market with nearly $1.9M open interest, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. With 104 days to expiry and extreme realized volatility of 269%, this market appears to be pricing in significant uncertainty around the IMU's final selection decision, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional bias currently.
Also on kalshi at 36¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
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sf trade 0xdef79aab7ed2ea2b1cf53f2c20d353380ff1583eb7e4b29109dc7c667f0d298f yes 100