Will Gunnar Henderson win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Polymarket pricing Henderson at 25¢ versus Kalshi at just 7¢—a 257% spread that suggests severe disagreement or pricing inefficiency across platforms. The 45¢ bid-ask spread on Polymarket combined with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,726 open interest indicates virtually no market depth, making the 525% implied yield on the "Yes" side potentially misleading given execution risk. The dramatic 2018% realized volatility and sharp 7-point price drop over seven days, coupled with a Cliff Risk Index of 3, suggest this market is highly unstable and prone to sudden moves, likely driven by minimal trading activity rather than fundamental information flow.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade