Will Gunnar Henderson win AL Hank Aaron Award?

7¢

Bid/Ask 0/7¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $265·Closes Dec 8, 2026·234d remaining

KXMLBALHAARON-26-GHEN

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme mispricing with Kalshi pricing Henderson at 7¢ versus Polymarket's 23¢—a 229% spread that represents significant arbitrage opportunity favoring the Yes side on Kalshi. The implied yield of 2072.5% on Yes is extraordinarily high, reflecting the depressed price, though this must be weighed against the 13 Cliff Risk Index and near-zero liquidity ($0 volume in 24h, $265 open interest). The sharp 7-day rally from 1¢ to 7¢ combined with the cross-venue gap suggests either Kalshi participants are undervaluing Henderson's chances or Polymarket reflects more efficient pricing, making this a high-risk but potentially high-reward position for contrarian bettors with conviction on Henderson's 2026 performance.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 23¢(Δ -16¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.94IY 586.5%Close-time delta 615h

Resolution rules

If Gunnar Henderson wins the Pro Baseball American League Hank Aaron Award in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2072.5%

IY (No) 11.7%

Adj IY 1036%

CRI 13

Overround 0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2072.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1036%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 3:23:43 PM

Indicators computed 4/18/2026, 3:23:20 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBALHAARON-26-GHEN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →