Will Eric Vaughan advance to the general election for WA-03?

Eric Vaughan's WA-03 general election advancement contract is pricing in a 10% probability with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 3,015% for YES positions, suggesting either severe underpricing or minimal market confidence in his viability. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $12,913 open interest and a 2¢ spread indicates illiquid conditions where the price may not reflect genuine consensus, and the extreme cliff risk index of 9 signals high volatility potential as the August 4, 2026 primary approaches in 109 days. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action suggest the market has settled on this low probability without recent catalysts, though the massive YES yield implies contrarian bettors see significant upside if Vaughan performs better than expected.

Resolution rules

The non-partisan primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives is scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. The two candidates who receive the most votes in this primary election will qualify for the General Election. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 WA-03 congressional district primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for the WA-03 congressional district seat, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Washington, specifically the Washington Office of the Secretary of State.

Indicators

Regime

Trade