What is the current probability for "Macarthur wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 99¢ (99% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 8, 2026. 14 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Macarthur wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 499.7% and 13772.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Macarthur wins by over 2.5 goals?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Macarthur wins by over 2.5 goals?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Macarthur wins by over 2.5 goals?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing May 8, 2026.

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99¢

Bid/Ask 99/100¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $4,843.76·OI $3,406.04·Closes May 8, 2026·14d remaining

KXALEAGUESPREAD-26APR24MACWPH-MAC2

7-day price35 snapshots · 7 regime

90¢90¢ current

Apr 212¢Apr 24

Resolution rules

If Macarthur wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Macarthur vs Wellington professional A-League soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 24, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.7%

IY (No) 13772.1%

Adj IY 11640%

CRI 5

RV 2092%

VR 4.13

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	499.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	13772.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	11640%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2092%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.13	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.15	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/24/2026, 11:30:52 AM

Depth change (1h) -0.5%

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/24/2026, 11:38:44 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXALEAGUESPREAD-26APR24MACWPH-MAC2 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →