SimpleFunctions

Lil Uzi Vert · Which artists will release a new song in 2026

Lil Uzi Vert is priced at 96¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 93¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 6 inside Which artists will release a new song in 2026?.

Price history

96¢ current

+4¢
50¢75¢100¢
Apr 27, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song or single is officially available for download or streaming (not including live performances, recordings of live performances, or leaks) by the resolution date. Live versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, or similar non-original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count. Songs where the listed artist appears only as a secondary or featured performer, rather than the primary artist, will also not count. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the credits of the below-listed resolution sources (e.g., the song ‘girl, get up.’ counts as a new release for SZA as she is, equally to Doechii, labeled “Main Artist” in the Spotify credits to the song, regardless of feature indication in the title). For listed groups of artists, tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than the listed group name will not count toward resolution. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.

Outcome

Lil Uzi Vert

Rank

#1 of 6

Leader

Lil Uzi Vert 95¢

Range

28¢-95¢

Family volume

$26K

Identifier

0xec692a3d...146b

May 27, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 30m ago

Implied probability

96¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 30m ago

Bid

93¢

Ask

97¢

Spread

Reported volume

$2K

Family rank

#1 of 6

6 outcomes · Which artists will release a new song in 2026?

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Family volume

$26K

Orderbook snapshot

93 / 97¢

Polymarket
4¢ spread
BidSize
93¢25
93¢7
92¢5
87¢40
80¢40
41¢171
28¢42
27¢263
AskSize
97¢50
98¢40
99¢100
99¢125
99¢215
100¢2.0K
100¢300
100¢200

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song or single is officially available for download or streaming (not including live performances, recordings of live performances, or leaks) by the resolution date. Live versions, re-releases, deluxe editions, or similar non-original or altered versions of previously released songs will not count. Songs where the listed artist appears only as a secondary or featured performer, rather than the primary artist, will also not count. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the credits of the below-listed resolution sources (e.g., the song ‘girl, get up.’ counts as a new release for SZA as she is, equally to Doechii, labeled “Main Artist” in the Spotify credits to the song, regardless of feature indication in the title). For listed groups of artists, tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than the listed group name will not count toward resolution. The primary resolution sources will be official streaming and download platforms. In cases of ambiguity over how a song/album is labeled, the listed resolution sources will be consulted in the following order of precedence: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Deezer.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0xec692a3d…146b

SF Signal
SF Index
2991.94
Regime
neutral

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on kalshi at 80¢, +16¢ versus this page.

View counterpart

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

8.8%

IY (No)

3193.8%

Adj IY

2992%

CRI

19

RV

74%

VR

2.51

Regime

neutral

Score

0.432

Observability

medium

Event type

unknown

Full indicator table

8.8%
3193.8%
Adj IY
2992%
19
RV
74%
VR
2.51
IAR
0.6/h
Overround
2.7%
LAS
0.06

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.