Which artists will release a new song in 2026
Leader sits at 87% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 73%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Lil Uzi Vert
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
73¢
Taylor Swift
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which artists will release a new song in 2026
Which artists will release a new song in 2026?: Nicki Minaj
0x8a1b8b…1fcb
Which artists will release a new song in 2026?: Taylor Swift
0x39735f…9e1e
Which artists will release a new song in 2026?: SZA
0x3aa9ce…a67b
Which artists will release a new song in 2026?: Lil Uzi Vert
0xec692a…146b
Which artists will release a new song in 2026?: Frank Ocean
0xce92e2…894b
Which artists will release a new song in 2026?: JAY-Z
0xffda1c…0847
Which artists will release a new song in 2026?: Beyoncé
0x8fc0e0…635f
Analysis
This market reflects traders' assessment that Nicki Minaj has an 88% chance of releasing at least one new song during 2026. The high probability reflects her established pattern of regular releases and active presence in the music industry, though it could shift based on unexpected career changes or health issues. The main drivers are her track record of consistent output and upcoming industry cycles. The resolution will depend on official releases tracked by music platforms and industry databases through December 31, 2026, making this sensitive to any announced hiatuses or surprise releases. Related markets show lower confidence in full-album releases versus single songs across artists like Taylor Swift (74%) and SZA (66%), suggesting traders distinguish between major project commitments and one-off releases.
- ›Nicki Minaj's historical release frequency: she has released new music in 11 of the past 12 calendar years, establishing a strong baseline expectation
- ›Absence of announced breaks or retirement: no public statements as of mid-2026 indicating she plans to step back from recording
- ›Distinction between singles and albums: the market prices song releases higher than album releases, reflecting lower barriers to new single content
- ›Comparison data from peer artists: Taylor Swift at 74% and SZA at 66% suggests market uncertainty about sustained output across the industry
- ›Market liquidity constraints: zero 24-hour volume on top contracts indicates limited recent trading activity and potential stale pricing
What moved the line
- May 7Taylor Swift↓18pp75→57¢ · Polymarket
- May 6SZA↓13pp62→49¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Taylor Swift↑11pp57→68¢ · Polymarket
- May 6JAY-Z↓9pp52→43¢ · Polymarket
- May 7Lil Uzi Vert↓9pp78→69¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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