Will SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 1% probability that Will SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?. This contract trades at 1¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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1¢
Bid/Ask 1/1¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $0·OI $7,246.448·Closes Dec 31, 2026
0xf89ba0a4af6cf971d1d6eb1b0fca2194ace4dfb3e492821e16a4ed49a365a5a1
7-day price5 snapshots · 9 regime
3¢1¢ current
Apr 111¢Apr 18
Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 88¢-87¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.86IY 513.5%Close-time delta 5842h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
0¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 9:35:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xf89ba0a4af6cf971d1d6eb1b0fca2194ace4dfb3e492821e16a4ed49a365a5a1 yes 100

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