Above 10 · How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 1
Above 10 is priced at 96¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 96¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 8 inside How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 1.
Price history
96¢ current
+8¢Contract brief
If SpaceX has more than 10 launches in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 10
Rank
#1 of 8
Leader
Above 10 96¢
Range
1¢-96¢
Family volume
$17K
Identifier
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-10
Jun 8, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
96¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#1 of 8
8 outcomes · How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 1
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$17K
Orderbook snapshot
96 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If SpaceX has more than 10 launches in June 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-10
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at —.
Event family
How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$17K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Above 10 96¢
Current share
9%
Above 10
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-10
Above 11
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-11
Above 12
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-12
Above 13
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-13
Above 14
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-14
Above 15
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-15
Above 16
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-16
Above 18
kalshi · KXSPACEXCOUNT-26JUN-18
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 96% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.