What is the current probability for "Will XRP reach $3.20 by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 13¢ (13% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will XRP reach $3.20 by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 995.8% and 22.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will XRP reach $3.20 by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will XRP reach $3.20 by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will XRP reach $3.20 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This XRP market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1034% implied yield on "Yes" positions versus just 19.2% on "No," reflecting the massive 1033.8% gap between current price (11¢) and the $3.20 target—requiring a 2,809% rally over 259 days.

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13¢

Bid/Ask 9/17¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $294.047·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining

0xfae55a9506c8f656110a0983a7927240c27d99e097e339b33f843503bba2cb29

7-day price642 snapshots · 4 regime

51¢13¢ current

Apr 89¢Apr 30

Analysis

13d ago

This XRP market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1034% implied yield on "Yes" positions versus just 19.2% on "No," reflecting the massive 1033.8% gap between current price (11¢) and the $3.20 target—requiring a 2,809% rally over 259 days. The zero 24-hour volume and wide 7¢ spread on just $12k open interest signal severe illiquidity, making the 11% probability potentially unreliable; the 3.08 volatility ratio and 1003% realized volatility suggest this is an extremely speculative venue with limited price discovery. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the cliff risk index of 7 indicates meaningful tail risk, though the 1.3 info arrivals per hour suggest modest fundamental catalysts are being priced in.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for XRP (XRP/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance XRP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 995.8%

IY (No) 22.2%

Adj IY 996%

CRI 7

RV 1038%

VR 3.15

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	995.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	22.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	996%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1038%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.15	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 5:01:37 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 4:53:09 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xfae55a9506c8f656110a0983a7927240c27d99e097e339b33f843503bba2cb29 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →