This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
November 3 | 100.0% |
November 4 | 100.0% |
December 18 | 100.0% |
December 1 | 100.0% |
December 2 | 100.0% |
November 8 | 100.0% |
December 3 | 100.0% |
November 10 | 100.0% |
December 19 | 100.0% |
November 12 | 100.0% |
October 30 | 100.0% |
December 5 | 100.0% |
December 13 | 100.0% |
November 16 | 100.0% |
November 17 | 100.0% |
December 20 | 100.0% |
November 19 | 100.0% |
November 20 | 100.0% |
November 21 | 100.0% |
November 22 | 100.0% |
December 8 | 100.0% |
November 24 | 100.0% |
November 26 | 100.0% |
December 25 | 100.0% |
November 28 | 100.0% |
November 2 | 100.0% |
November 29 | 100.0% |
December 31 | 1.4% |
November 13 | 0.0% |
October 31 | 0.0% |
November 1 | 0.0% |
November 7 | 0.0% |
November 9 | 0.0% |
November 11 | 0.0% |
November 14 | 0.0% |
November 15 | 0.0% |
CurrentNovember 18 | 0.0% |
November 23 | 0.0% |
November 25 | 0.0% |
November 27 | 0.0% |
November 30 | 0.0% |
December 4 | 0.0% |
December 6 | 0.0% |
December 7 | 0.0% |
December 9 | 0.0% |
December 10 | 0.0% |
December 11 | 0.0% |
December 12 | 0.0% |
December 14 | 0.0% |
December 15 | 0.0% |
December 17 | 0.0% |
December 22 | 0.0% |
December 23 | 0.0% |
December 24 | 0.0% |
December 26 | 0.0% |
December 27 | 0.0% |
December 28 | 0.0% |
December 29 | 0.0% |
December 30 | 0.0% |
November 5 | 0.0% |
November 6 | 0.0% |