This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
November 2 | 100.0% |
November 3 | 100.0% |
November 4 | 100.0% |
December 1 | 100.0% |
December 2 | 100.0% |
December 3 | 100.0% |
December 20 | 100.0% |
November 12 | 100.0% |
December 5 | 100.0% |
October 30 | 100.0% |
November 16 | 100.0% |
November 17 | 100.0% |
December 25 | 100.0% |
November 19 | 100.0% |
November 20 | 100.0% |
November 22 | 100.0% |
November 24 | 100.0% |
December 8 | 100.0% |
November 26 | 100.0% |
December 18 | 100.0% |
November 28 | 100.0% |
November 29 | 100.0% |
December 19 | 100.0% |
December 30 | 0.0% |
October 31 | 0.0% |
November 9 | 0.0% |
November 11 | 0.0% |
November 14 | 0.0% |
November 15 | 0.0% |
November 18 | 0.0% |
November 25 | 0.0% |
November 27 | 0.0% |
November 30 | 0.0% |
December 4 | 0.0% |
December 6 | 0.0% |
December 7 | 0.0% |
December 9 | 0.0% |
December 10 | 0.0% |
December 12 | 0.0% |
December 15 | 0.0% |
December 17 | 0.0% |
December 22 | 0.0% |
December 23 | 0.0% |
CurrentDecember 24 | 0.0% |
December 26 | 0.0% |
December 27 | 0.0% |
December 28 | 0.0% |
December 29 | 0.0% |
November 5 | 0.0% |
November 6 | 0.0% |