What is the current probability for "Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 21¢ (21% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 16, 2026. 22 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 6158.5% and 435.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026.

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21¢

Bid/Ask 19/23¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $60·OI $2,503.042·Closes May 16, 2026·22d remaining

0xa3b892a495703e26c87f8226817c9d884a62692b6f98d20c42b5353e854cdcdd

7-day price167 snapshots · 3 regime

27¢21¢ current

Apr 819¢Apr 23

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2025-2026 FA Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2025-2026 FA Cup per the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2025-2026 FA Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Football Association (https://www.thefa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 6158.5%

IY (No) 435.2%

Adj IY 3079%

CRI 4

Overround 0.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	6158.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	435.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3079%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 4:53:33 PM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 4:53:12 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xa3b892a495703e26c87f8226817c9d884a62692b6f98d20c42b5353e854cdcdd yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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