Will Bukayo Saka win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Bukayo Saka win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing August 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,262 open interest, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 3,087% implied yield on the yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,262 open interest, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 3,087% implied yield on the yes side. The 14¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and the dramatic 167% price increase over seven days (3¢ to 8¢) combined with 4,223% realized volatility suggests this thin market is highly susceptible to manipulation or noise rather than genuine probability discovery. With 136 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 12, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a liquid betting opportunity on Saka's actual chances.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2025-26 PFA Players' Player of the Year. If two or more players are announced as winners of the 2026 PFA Players’ Player of the Year award, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no 2025-2026 PFA Players' Player of the Year winner is declared by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the Professional Footballers’ Association; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xf55b9dabae4c0c283567c09bdc1a0932be502a7a832cab5f06760981fc77de36 yes 100